The Existential Dilemma of Small Island State Sovereignty Due to Climate Change: An International Legal Analysis of Vanuatu’s Vulnerability Within The Framework of The Paris Agreement, The SDGs, and Climate Justice

Abstract

Climate change poses an existential threat to small island states such as Vanuatu, which remain environmentally and socially vulnerable despite contributing merely 0.0016% of global emissions. This study employs a normative legal research method, utilizing statutory, conceptual, and comparative approaches to analyze primary legal materials including the Paris Agreement, UNCLOS 1982, and SDG resolutions alongside secondary doctrinal sources. The research examines two principal issues: (1) the adequacy of territorial protection for Vanuatu under the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs); and (2) the legal implications for state sovereignty and statehood should the territory become submerged due to projected sea-level rise and its population displaced. The findings reveal a significant implementation gap in the Paris Agreement and related SDGs, leaving Vanuatu exposed to disproportionate climate risks. Furthermore, while the doctrine of state continuity and the concept of deterritorialized statehood provide a normative basis for preserving Vanuatu’s sovereignty and citizen status, legal uncertainty persists due to the absence of recognition for climate refugees under the 1951 Refugee Convention. Through teleological interpretation, this study highlights the urgency of aligning international legal obligations with the physical reality of Vanuatu’s potential submersion. Consequently, this study recommends strengthening the enforcement of international environmental law and developing specific legal instruments to protect persons displaced by climate change and to guarantee the permanent residency status of Vanuatu’s citizens.